In the aftermath of Tropical Storm Helene, some in government and the news media were sounding the alarm on the prospect of population loss in affected areas of the state. The fear that there would be a mass exodus from the North Carolina mountains was contagious.
The storm’s effect on the population will likely not be as dramatic as some imagined, but that doesn’t mean nothing has changed. It’s hard to say, nine months out, what to expect as the situation continues to develop.
But some clues have come into focus.
State demographer Mike Cline thinks that, in the best-case scenario, the region will lose about 5% of its displaced population. The worst-case scenario could result in population loss as high as 35% among those who have been displaced.
Two factors affecting population were already in play. Families were being priced out of Western North Carolina — and the population has been aging.
Then came Helene. Some lost their homes and were forced to leave. They often had no choice. Some evacuated and never came back. People lost loved ones, pets, cars, businesses and so much more that had tied them to the area.
While most people who left their community will take up residence somewhere else in Western North Carolina, according to Cline, some won’t. Those who do return are likely to be older and have more financial resources than those who do not.
On the other hand, many, many people have stayed put and appear likely to remain where they are.
“When you have a disaster, people want to know immediately what is happening,” Cline told Carolina Public Press. “Most studies show that 65% to 95% of people, depending on the disaster, will return within six months to a year.
“But the data is limited. Most of Western North Carolina’s population live in unincorporated communities or very small towns. When you have a smaller population, it’s harder to track.”
But that doesn’t stop him from trying.
His office formed an ad-hoc subcommittee to meet and discuss the issue of population change post-Helene. They look at housing permits, demolition rates, rehabilitated properties, school enrollments and surveys of local governments.
From there, they can start to get a sense of how many people were displaced and unlikely to return. But they are wary to release anything official until more robust data is available.
Changing population migration patterns
The storm may deter or delay people who were thinking of moving or retiring to Western North Carolina.
“Are the people who were planning to move here actually going to move now?” Cline asked. “That’s where I think the greatest impact in terms of future growth or change will be.”
The region was seen as something of a “climate haven” before Helene, a place where one could be safe from extreme temperatures, sea-level rise and natural disasters, according to Mitchell County resident Lori Gilcrist.
The mountains have lost that status, she says. The chance of something like Helene happening again may decrease the region’s popularity.
It also could be the final straw for someone who was thinking of leaving the region already.
But Gilcrist, for one, said she is not going anywhere.
One factor Cline talks about is the “rootedness” of the region. Even though it’s a popular retirement destination, some families have been there for generations, folks born and raised and still living in the same communities their great-grandparents did.
That Appalachian rootedness may insulate the region from extreme population loss.
Academic aftershocks
But for some populations, like the student population at Appalachian State University in Boone, for example, that rootedness is not really a factor.
“There were a lot of students who had housing problems and real psychological trauma, during and right after the event,” said Colin Kelley, a professor of climate science at App State. “Many had to go home to help their families or deal with their own problems.”
In the Henderson County school system, enrollment dropped by 283 students after the storm.
That number includes families who left the region completely, relocated to a different school district or withdrew their children from school while dealing with the aftermath.
In Buncombe County, eight schools experienced “large losses” in the student body, meaning losses of 20 students or more.
But school officials in Haywood and McDowell County say enrollment numbers have been steadily declining for years, so it’s hard to say how different things would have looked if Helene had not happened.
That’s the prevailing feeling in the Haywood County government as well.
“It’s really difficult to quantify population changes and even more so to attribute any shifts directly to Helene,” said Dillon Huffman, the public information officer for Haywood County.
“From a local government perspective, I don’t know how we associate anything as a direct result of the storm. In fact, I would venture to say that Haywood County has grown in terms of overall population over the past year. One indicator we keep an eye on is building permit activity, which remains strong.
“We won’t have official Census data for another five years, and we’re only nine months out from Helene — it’s tough to establish meaningful trends in such a short window.”
This article first appeared on Carolina Public Press and is republished here under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.